Matthew Dixon - Veteran Financial Trader
@mdtrade · May 25, 2026
The major trend is apparently still upward for #XAU
The larger structure from early 2025 into the 2026 highs is clearly impulsive, with strong momentum, steep slope, expanding ranges and persistent higher highs.
That usually means the dominant trend remains bullish unless decisively broken.
However, the recent structure looks corrective since the spike top around $XAU 5600. Price action became overlapping and messy, volatility increased, momentum weakened and #RSI failed to regain strong bullish territory which generally suggests consolidation, triangle/range behaviour or a larger degree correction.
But importantly:
I do NOT yet see a completed major bearish reversal structure.
We have likely seen a completed wave 4 triangle/consolidation, followed by the strong wave 5 advance higher.
So we either have a Bullish scenario (currently slightly favoured)
The recent decline from the 5600 area is:
an ABC correction,
or complex sideways correction,
before another push upward with continued consolidation between $GOLD 4400–4900
then eventual breakout higher toward a retest of high the ATH with possibly 5800–6200 later.
Alternatively in a Bearish scenario
A larger top may be forming IF 4,400 breaks decisively,
followed by impulsive downside continuation.
Then possibilities become 4100 or even 3900
But currently the #GOLD chart still looks more corrective than impulsively bearish imo
The larger structure from early 2025 into the 2026 highs is clearly impulsive, with strong momentum, steep slope, expanding ranges and persistent higher highs.
That usually means the dominant trend remains bullish unless decisively broken.
However, the recent structure looks corrective since the spike top around $XAU 5600. Price action became overlapping and messy, volatility increased, momentum weakened and #RSI failed to regain strong bullish territory which generally suggests consolidation, triangle/range behaviour or a larger degree correction.
But importantly:
I do NOT yet see a completed major bearish reversal structure.
We have likely seen a completed wave 4 triangle/consolidation, followed by the strong wave 5 advance higher.
So we either have a Bullish scenario (currently slightly favoured)
The recent decline from the 5600 area is:
an ABC correction,
or complex sideways correction,
before another push upward with continued consolidation between $GOLD 4400–4900
then eventual breakout higher toward a retest of high the ATH with possibly 5800–6200 later.
Alternatively in a Bearish scenario
A larger top may be forming IF 4,400 breaks decisively,
followed by impulsive downside continuation.
Then possibilities become 4100 or even 3900
But currently the #GOLD chart still looks more corrective than impulsively bearish imo